Obama, Congress set for late push on “fiscal cliff”

WASHINGTON/HONOLULU (Reuters) – President Barack Obama is due back in Washington early Thursday for a final effort to negotiate a deal with Congress to avert or at least postpone the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and government spending cuts set to begin next week.

No specific bill dealing with the cliff was on the schedule of either the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, which are expected to return on Thursday after the holiday break. In Congress, the corridors were almost empty and the doors to members’ rooms were locked.

Investors are closely watching the talks, concerned that going over the cliff could throw the economy into recession. U.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday after retailers reported disappointing holiday sales as shoppers tightened belts possibly due to fiscal cliff worries.

Aides and members of Congress have said that a modest, last-minute measure to avoid the spending cuts and most of the tax hikes could pass the Democratic-controlled Senate if Republicans agree not use a procedural roadblock known as a filibuster, a commitment that Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has so far not made.

The legislative focus continues to shift from deficit reduction to averting the immediate shock of the December 31 cliff dive.

“This is the ‘Break Glass’ scenario that we have long believed would rise in probability the closer we go to December 31, which essentially calls for extending all the rates for those individuals making under $ 200K and households under $ 250K and does not address the debt ceiling or the deficit,” analyst Chris Krueger of Guggenheim Securities wrote in a research note.

But to win approval in the Republican-controlled House of any bill that raises taxes on anyone, a rare bipartisan vote would be required. All 191 Democrats would have to team with up with at least 26 Republicans to get a majority if the bill included tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans, as Obama is demanding.

Some of those votes could conceivably come from among the 34 Republican members who are either retiring or were defeated in the November elections and no longer have to worry about the political fallout.

JANUARY SCRAMBLE?

In the alternative, Congress could let income taxes go up on everyone as now scheduled and then during the first week of January, scramble and get a quick deal to cut them back except for the highest brackets, along with a measure putting off the $ 109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.

Once the clock ticks past midnight on December 31, no member of Congress would have to vote for a tax increase on anyone – taxes would have risen automatically – and the only votes would be to decrease tax rates for most Americans back to their 2012 levels.

Americans’ optimism that Obama and congressional leaders will reach a budget agreement before January 1 has waned in recent days, according to a Gallup poll released on Wednesday. Fifty percent believe a deal will be reached – a drop of 7 percentage points from the previous week – and 48 percent are doubtful. The poll was taken just after talks ran into trouble last week.

Obama and congressional lawmakers left Washington on Friday for the Christmas holiday with negotiations to avert the fiscal cliff in limbo.

The president will cut short his vacation in Hawaii and leave for Washington later on Wednesday, arriving in the capital early on Thursday.

Obama is expected to turn to a trusted Democratic ally, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, to help craft a quick deal.

White House aides began discussing details of the year-end budget measure with Senate Democratic counterparts early this week.

Starbucks Chief Executive Howard Schultz is urging workers in the company’s roughly 120 Washington-area coffee shops to write “come together” on customers’ cups on Thursday and Friday to send a message to sharply divided politicians.

“We’re paying attention, we’re greatly disappointed in what’s going on and we deserve better,” Schultz told Reuters.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Ferraro and Richard Cowan in Washington and Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Eric Beech)

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The Jim Cramer of China

When Hu Bin started his blog in early 2008, he was a skinny 22-year-old college dropout with a perpetually skeptical look on his face and little doubt he’d soon be a household name. The previous year the Shanghai Stock Exchange had been flooded by speculators. For a brief period, it was the second-busiest exchange in the world. It was also beginning a dramatic fall ushered in by the global financial crisis. Hu says he considered the market, considered his audience, and sensed it was time to make his mark. “It really started when Premier Wen Jiabao announced a 4 trillion renminbi rescue plan for the economy,” Hu says. “I knew I just needed to be clever and use this chance of high liquidity in the market to make myself famous.”

Now 26, Hu is China’s most popular online market commentator. His blog has gotten more than 400 million visits. His posts are equal parts outlandish and thoughtful, and employ liberal use of bolded, multicolored text and exclamation points. Hu writes under the name Yerongtian—a character from a real estate-themed Hong Kong soap opera—and has been known to pick fights with other commentators, whom he says suffer from a “lack of emotion.” He has posted at least one picture of cats, and multiple pictures of himself wearing sunglasses to help illustrate his opinions. In 2009 the state-run newspaper China Daily listed him (under his alias) among the 10 people in the nation with the most influence on China’s stock market. “Back then,” Hu says of 2008, “any eccentric behavior would attract people’s attention. If you understood this vital point, you could control people’s minds.”

Hu grew up in Kunming, a southwestern city of 6.4 million that’s far from China’s centers of finance. He learned about the stock market, he says, by watching his mother invest in her spare time. She put money into the market in the 1990s, early days for Chinese investment, and lost it all. “Now she invests her money in gold,” Hu says.

He started at Kunming University, intending to study philosophy and Marxism, but quit, thinking he would take up investing himself. “I was interested in psychology,” he says. “I wanted to know why everyone wanted to bet their future on an uncontrollable thing.”

Hu admits that in the early days of his blog, his knowledge of the market was thinner than it is now. He has always, however, understood his audience and how to keep it interested. Hu’s approach to his blog is purposefully bombastic, earning him vocal critics along with followers. In 2009 he got into a spat with another stock commentator, a man named Hou Ning. Hou, at least according to Chinese news reports from the time, holds the record for the longest nickname of any stock commentator in history—“Commander in Chief of the Stock Market Army.” The two made a 1 million yuan (roughly $ 160,000) bet on the future of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, with Hu wagering it would reach 4000 by the end of the year. It didn’t, and Hu didn’t pay, but he got what he wanted out of the rivalry. “Who would have paid attention to me if I had said 3000?” he asks. “Everyone already knew it would reach 3000.” In 2010 he promised to throw himself off one of Shanghai’s tallest buildings if the SSE Composite Index didn’t reach 5800 by the end of the year. It didn’t: Hu is still with us.

Photograph by Ka Xiaoxi“Chinese investors aren’t as mature as American investors, and I write to meet their immediate needs,” says Hu

Stunts aside, Hu has spent the last four years working through his thinking on the ups and downs of China’s economy in public, slipping thoughtful essays in between bouts of hyperbole. He spent his early days predicting the rise of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and now foresees its continuing decline. One recent headline: “Doomsday Runs Wild, the Stock Market will likely drop 200 points!!” In another post, he explains that a drop in the market may not be bad. It could give the authorities some space to make reforms without worrying about overheating, and help to attract more foreign investment. “The stock market is not only an economic weather vane,” he writes. “It is a political weather vane.”

Hu says he is not a financial rabble-rouser. Most laypeople, he says, should stay away from investing in individual stocks. The people who read his blog, however, are generally not professionals; retail investors make up the majority of the volume of trading in the Chinese market. According to the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission, there are around 72 million retail investors in China, accounting for three-quarters of the trading on domestic exchanges. And according to China’s state media, the majority of these investors have less than 1 million yuan in the market. It’s a group of people Hu says he understands well, even if it means giving sometimes conflicting advice. He may advise them to stay out of the market, but he knows the irresistible pull of equities on the newly wealthy, particularly in a country where there are few opportunities for investment. In effect, he’s giving advice to people he knows probably shouldn’t be in the market but are going to invest anyway.

“The stock market in the United States is managed by regulations,” Hu says. “The Chinese market is managed by humans. Chinese investors aren’t as mature as American investors, and I write to meet their immediate needs.”

Hu’s interest in the human story behind the market sets him apart from other bloggers, at least in his eyes. “They regard their blogs as livelihood, while I take my blog as my friend and pour my emotions and love into it. The emotion is what connects me to the readers—they feel more attached to my words.” The connection is important in part, says Hu, because Chinese investors have been taught that networking can solve anything. Even in the stock market, relationships are the deciding factor. “When it comes to stock investment, Chinese people always try to get inside information from someone within their social network. Americans like to read through financial statements, but Chinese people like to believe that their stocks go up because they have more inside information than anyone else.”

Today, Hu spends most of his time in Beijing, where he moved in 2009. On a recent Sunday, he is drinking tea at one of Beijing’s most expensive hotels, wearing a tie and a tan Calvin Klein puffy jacket that he does not take off. Instead, he stuffs his hands in his jacket pockets while he talks, looking exactly like what he is—a blogger who’s hit it big, though he’s coy about, financially, how big. His sense of humor is also just slightly out of step with the tie. When asked about online nicknames, he says he’s not aware of any and then, unblinking and serious, says: “I prefer the nickname Batman.”

For all his success, Hu still considers blogging a hobby, not a career. “Fame is vanity,” he says, “while investment asks for real competence.” He’s now in the process of raising money for a private equity fund that, over the next few decades, he hopes to build into something like Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A). Again, he won’t say how much he’s raised. Although his blog posts are currently predicting dark times, Hu has faith that the Chinese market will recover, and he’s optimistic about the market and the future in general. “New Chinese leaders are going to take over, which will offer China economic opportunity in the following 10 years,” he says. China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, has promised the country will push forward with reforms, something that Hu is excited about. He’s also upbeat about China’s recent leadership transition. Political stability, he says, is a market good. “The opportunity will be mainly in China’s capital market, because it’s still in an initial stage,” he says. “I need to take advantage of this initial stage before everyone realizes there’s a gold mine when the market matures.”

Hilgers is a Bloomberg Businessweek contributor.

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U.N. General Assembly voices concern for Myanmar’s Muslims

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) – The U.N. General Assembly expressed serious concern on Monday over violence between Rohingya Muslims and Buddhists in Myanmar and called upon its government to address reports of human rights abuses by some authorities.

The 193-nation General Assembly approved by consensus a non-binding resolution, which Myanmar said last month contained a “litany of sweeping allegations, accuracies of which have yet to be verified.”

Outbreaks of violence between ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and the Rohingyas have killed dozens and displaced thousands since June. Rights groups also have accused Myanmar security forces of killing, raping and arresting Rohingyas after the riots. Myanmar said it exercised “maximum restraint” to quell the violence.

The unanimously adopted U.N. resolution “expressing particular concern about the situation of the Rohingya minority in Rakhine state, urges the government to take action to bring about an improvement in their situation and to protect all their human rights, including their right to a nationality.”

At least 800,000 Muslim Rohingyas live in Rakhine State along the western coast of Myanmar, also known as Burma. But Buddhist Rakhines and other Burmese view them as illegal immigrants from neighboring Bangladesh who deserve neither rights nor sympathy.

The resolution adopted on Monday is identical to one approved last month by the General Assembly’s Third Committee, which focuses on human rights. After that vote, Myanmar’s mission to the United Nations said that it accepted the resolution but objected to the Rohingyas being referred to as a minority.

“There has been no such ethnic group as Rohingya among the ethnic groups of Myanmar,” a representative of Myanmar said at the time. “Despite this fact, the right to citizenship for any member or community has been and will never be denied if they are in line with the law of the land.”

(Reporting By Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Paul Simao)

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China may require real name registration for internet access

BEIJING (Reuters) – China may require internet users to register with their real names when signing up to network providers, state media said on Tuesday, extending a policy already in force with microblogs in a bid to curb what officials call rumors and vulgarity.

A law being discussed this week would mean people would have to present their government-issued identity cards when signing contracts for fixed line and mobile internet access, state-run newspapers said.

“The law should escort the development of the internet to protect people’s interest,” Communist Party mouthpiece the People’s Daily said in a front page commentary, echoing similar calls carried in state media over the past week.

“Only that way can our internet be healthier, more cultured and safer.”

Many users say the restrictions are clearly aimed at further muzzling the often scathing, raucous – and perhaps most significantly, anonymous – online chatter in a country where the Internet offers a rare opportunity for open debate.

It could also prevent people from exposing corruption online if they fear retribution from officials, said some users.

It was unclear how the rules would be different from existing regulations as state media has provided only vague details and in practice customers have long had to present identity papers when signing contracts with internet providers.

Earlier this year, the government began forcing users of Sina Corp’s wildly successful Weibo microblogging platform to register their real names.

The government says such a system is needed to prevent people making malicious and anonymous accusations online and that many other countries already have such rules.

“It would also be the biggest step backwards since 1989,” wrote one indignant Weibo user, in apparent reference to the 1989 pro-democracy protests bloodily suppressed by the army.

Chinese internet users have long had to cope with extensive censorship, especially over politically sensitive topics like human rights, and popular foreign sites Facebook, Twitter and Google-owned YouTube are blocked.

Despite periodic calls for political reform, the ruling Communist Party has shown no sign of loosening its grip on power and brooks no dissent to its authority.

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Huang Yan; Editing by Michael Perry)

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Character actor, World War Two hero Charles Durning dies at 89

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Charles Durning, a World War Two hero who became one of Hollywood’s top character actors in films like “The Sting,” “Tootsie” and “The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas,” has died, a New York City funeral home said on Tuesday. He was 89.

Durning, who was nominated for nine Emmys for his television work as well as two Academy Awards, died of natural causes at his New York City home on Monday, his agent told People magazine. Frank E. Campbell Funeral Chapel in Manhattan confirmed Durning‘s death to Reuters.

Durning also was an accomplished stage actor and once said he preferred doing plays because of the immediacy they offered. He gained his first substantial acting experience through the New York Shakespeare Festival starting in the early 1960s and won a Tony Award for playing Big Daddy in a 1990 Broadway revival of “Cat on a Hot Tin Roof.”

Durning did not start amassing film and TV credits until he was almost 40 but went on to appear in more than 100 movies, in addition to scores of TV shows.

Durning’s first national exposure came playing a crooked policeman who gets conned by Robert Redford in the 1973 movie “The Sting.” He got the role after impressing director George Roy Hill with his work in the Pulitzer- and Tony-winning Broadway play “That Championship Season.”

Durning had everyday looks – portly, thinning hair and a bulbous nose – and was a casting director’s delight, equally adept at comedy and drama.

Durning was nominated for supporting-actor Oscars for playing a Nazi in the 1984 Mel Brooks comedy “To Be or Not to Be” and the governor in the musical “The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas” in 1983. “Whorehouse” was one of 13 movies Durning made with friend Burt Reynolds, as well as Reynolds’ 1990s TV sitcom “Evening Shade.”

Other notable Durning movie roles included a cop in “Dog Day Afternoon,” a man who falls in love with Dustin Hoffman’s cross-dressing character in “Tootsie,” “Dick Tracy,” “Home for the Holidays,” “The Muppet Movie,” “North Dallas Forty” and “O Brother Where Art Thou?”

He was nominated for Emmys for the TV series “Rescue Me,” “NCIS,” “Homicide: Life on the Street,” “Captains and the Kings” and “Evening Shade,” as well as the specials “Death of a Salesman,” “Attica” and “Queen of the Stardust Ballroom.”

Durning was a fan of Jimmy Cagney and after returning from harrowing service in World War Two he tried singing, dancing, and stand-up comedy. He attended the American Academy of Dramatic Arts until he was kicked out.

“They basically said you have no talent and you couldn’t even buy a dime’s worth of it if it was for sale,” Durning told The New York Times.

D-DAY INVASION

He worked a number of make-do jobs – cab driver, dance instructor, doorman, dishwasher, telegram deliveryman, bridge painter, tourist guide – all while waiting for a shot at an acting career. Occasional stage roles led him to Joseph Papp, the founder of the New York Shakespeare Festival, who became his mentor.

“Joe said to me once, ‘If you hadn’t been an actor, you would have been a murderer,’” Durning told the Times. “I don’t know what that meant. I hope he was kidding. He said I couldn’t do anything else but act.”

Durning grew up in Highland Falls, New York, and was 12 years old when his Irish-born father died of the effects of mustard gas exposure in World War One. He had nine siblings and five of his sisters died of smallpox or scarlet fever – three within a two-week period.

Durning was part of the U.S. force that landed at Omaha Beach during the D-Day invasion in June 1944. A few days later he was shot in the hip – he said he carried the bullet in his body thereafter – and after six months of recovery was sent to the Battle of the Bulge.

Durning, who was wounded twice more, was captured and was one of the few survivors of the Malmedy massacre when German troops opened fire on dozens of American prisoners. In addition to three Purple Heart medals for his wounds, Durning was presented the Silver Star for valor.

At an observation of the 60th anniversary of D-Day in Washington, Durning told of the terror he felt and carnage he saw when hitting the beach on D-Day. He said he had to jettison his weapon and gear in order to swim ashore and saw mortally wounded comrades offering themselves as human shields.

“I forget a lot of stuff now but I still wake up once in a while and it’s still there,” he said. “I can’t count how many of my buddies are in the cemetery at Normandy.”

Durning was married twice and had three children.

(Reporting by Ellen Wulfhorst; Writing by Bill Trott; Editing by Eric Beech)

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‘Bumping’ Your Way to Safer Sex With a Smartphone App

Reported by Dr. Lauren Browne:

Let’s face it.  Teens have sex.  Parents may choose to ignore it, and teens may choose to deny it, but almost 50 percent of American high school students are having sex, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. And each year, millions of those sexually active teens contract sexually transmitted diseases such as chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, herpes and HIV.

Now one doctor hopes to curb the spread of STDs in this tech savvy group with a smartphone app that lets users “bump” their STD status.

It’s called ‘safe bumping,’” said Dr. Michael Nusbaum, the New Jersey developer of MedXSafe, a feature of the new app called MedXCom.  “If you happen to be out at a bar or a fraternity house or wherever, and you meet someone, you can then bump phones and exchange contact information and STD status.”

The app’s special feature, according to Nussbaum, encourages dating singles to go to the doctor for regular STD checks.  Those who screen negative can ask their doctors to document their STD-free status on the app, allowing users to share the information with whomever they choose.

An alarming 19 million new sexually transmitted infections occur each year, and rates of chlamydia and gonorrhea are on the rise, according to a new report released this month by the CDC.  More than 1.4 million chlamydia infections were reported in 2011, up 8 percent from the previous year.  Cases of gonorrhea were up by 4 percent, marking the second consecutive year of increases.

Nearly half of all infections occur in young people, between the ages of 15 to 24, a group that can be particularly devastated by the associated health effects.

“[Some] undetected and untreated STDs can increase a person’s risk for HIV and cause other serious health consequences, such as infertility,” said Mary McFarlane, an acting chief in the Division of STD Prevention at the CDC.  Harnessing modern social networking technology to prevent these infections may appeal to a younger tech-savvy generation.

MedXSafe is just one of several Internet-based programs devoted to easing confidential STD-status sharing between sexual partners.  Services like Qpid.me, whose slogan is Spread the Love, Nothing Else and U Should Know, designed by a former college student and his girlfriend, also allow their users to check on a partner’s STD status.

But could these services offer a false sense of security to teens who believe that, with a simple phone bump, they have the green light to have unprotected sex?

“It can take months for HIV to show up on a test,” said Renee Williams, executive director of SAFE, a nonprofit organization dedicated to abstinence education.  “So you can test negative today, go out on Friday night and have sex, and then get retested later and find out that you had HIV all along.”

The app does nothing to prevent unplanned pregnancy, and may even encourage high-risk behaviors that young people might otherwise not have been tempted to try, said Williams.

Nor is the app likely to be completely reliable, said Dr. J. Joseph Speidel, director of communication at the Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health.

“Does it come with a condom?” asked Dr. Richard Besser, ABC’s chief health and medical editor, who’s also a pediatrician and former acting director at the CDC.

But the app’s creator said it does promote regular STD testing and encourages potential partners to openly discuss safe sex practices.

“We’re recognizing that this behavior is going to take place no matter what we do or what we say,” said Nusbaum.  “I have friends that are nuns and I’ve run this by them, and they also agree that it’s promoting safer behaviors.”

Although each program promises to keep health information strictly confidential, none are immune from cyber attacks.

But such attacks would not expose any users who have an STD, according to Nusbaum.  MedXSafe does not allow doctors to upload information about any tests that come back positive, including HIV.  A user with an infection is simply treated for the STD and then retested.  And that user is only confirmed STD-free via the app once subsequent test results come back negative.

Still, it is too early to tell whether these services will become popular with teens.  Lingering social stigma surrounding STDs might make potential partners reluctant to mention such an app when out at a party.

“It’s a big personal step to bring up using such an app,” said Noah Bloom, creator of a smartphone app called Jiber, which uses the same “bump” technology to electronically connect new friends.  “Who really wants anything in the way of getting lucky?”

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Forecasts For 2013 From Around the World

Central Bankers
“We face a broader challenge—to defend the market economy amongst so many who suffered during the financial crisis. This was expressed memorably by William McChesney Martin when he spoke to the Economic Club of New York in 1957. He said, ‘Men begin to question whether the merriment was worth the misery, especially when the misery was worse among the millions who had never got in on the merrymaking in the first place.’ ” —Mervyn King, governor, Bank of England
 
Africa
“Africa remains on course to double its GDP every decade. This will be the decade of infrastructure investment.” —Charles Robertson, chief economist, Renaissance Capital
 
Indonesia
“What matters for Indonesia now is China and Chinese domestic spending.” —Timothy Condon, chief economist, Asia, ING Investment Management in Singapore
 
Russia’s Energy Squeeze
“Russia is OK for now but their system gets shaky two to three years down the road. They’ve been riding a decade of high energy prices, but with all the new oil and gas coming from everywhere, prices will fall. That’ll wipe out Gazprom’s profits. They’re worried about U.S. natural gas exports to Europe. Russia’s days as Europe’s main energy supplier are numbered.” —Anders Aslund, senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
 
Argentina
“Investors have been burned before, but I think Argentina’s worst days are behind them. Basically, I don’t think they can mess up any further than they already have.” —Walter Molano, chief economist, BCP Securities
 
China
“Beijing understands that it needs to rebalance away from investment toward household consumption. Next year will be a crucial step toward that, causing growth to slow in the second half. Most importantly, it needs to tighten up credit. That’s going to be hard on the state-owned enterprises that’ve become so dependent on what has essentially been free capital. But China has reached a point where the growth of investment and credit is no longer wealth creating, it’s wealth destroying.” —Michael Pettis, finance professor, Peking University
 
Oil Prices
“Look for more demand weakness and rising supply. In the U.S., we’ve had six straight quarters where GDP rises and petroleum demand falls. We’re finally becoming more energy efficient. On the flip side, we continue to see crude production rising. The latest data has the U.S. producing 6.9 million barrels per day, up 16 percent from 2011. That rate’s not slowing down.” —Tim Evans, energy analyst, Citi Futures Perspective
 
Bullish on East Asia
“We expect quarter four also to be good, and that then feeds into a very strong next year.” —Bert Hofman, World Bank chief economist for East Asia
 
Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
“Abe is going to hit the ground running. He can get broad agreement on a 10 trillion yen ($ 120 billion) stimulus package with infrastructure spending to jolt the economy out of recession. That will add to Japan’s pile of debt, but after you [top 200 percent] of GDP, what’s another 10 trillion yen? —Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies, Temple University
 
U.S. Employment
“So much depends on how quickly people continue to fade from the labor force out of frustration. That could actually bring down the unemployment rate rather quickly without a strong recovery in job growth. A stronger economy might actually hold up that rate longer than a weak one, because people will … jump back in and look for work. But remember, the unemployment rate is murky as a signal for the strength of the economy.” —James Galbraith, economist, University of Texas
 
Chinese Reform
“Xi has signaled he intends to change things. And there are people watching with a billion cell phones.” —Robert Lawrence Kuhn, author of How China’s Leaders Think
 
Temporary Hiring
“I’m beginning to see U.S. companies spend more and make a few more gambles. Give me all the IT, engineers, scientists, trained technicians, machinists you have. In Europe a lack of certainty has caused a halting of behavior. There’s downward pressure in Mexico, Brazil, and China. By no means do I see 2013 as a rock ‘n’ roll year.” —Carl Camden, CEO, Kelly Services
 
Japan-China Tension
“China’s intention to topple the status quo by use of coercion is clear. Does China want to see the Japan-China relations pass the point of no return?” —Japan Foreign Ministry statement
 
U.S. Housing
“We turned bullish on housing in the summer of 2011. Demand is greater than supply. It’s that simple. We, unlike other mature countries, still have people fall in love and get married and have babies. The big driver of demand is adult children moving out of the home. New home inventory is at a record low. [Credit is] more widely available than perceived. We are not complacent. I am a worrier beyond worrier. But it’s exciting right now.” —Ivy Zelman, Zelman & Associates
 
U.K. Economic Forecast
“Growth in the coming year will be just about zero.” —Michael Saunders, economist at Citi Research in London
 
India
“The budget deficit target will be missed. You have slower growth, revenues are weaker, and you still have a high level of subsidies in energy items that cost government money. There is an election that has to be called by May 2014, so there is always a risk you will get populist-type spending measures that could inflate the budget deficit.” —Art Woo, director of sovereigns, Fitch Ratings in Hong Kong
 
U.S. Capital Spending
“There is a lot of pent-up demand for investment spending that we think will get unleashed next year. Businesses have delayed capital projects in anticipation of the fiscal cliff. Capital spending has been notably weak in the last six months, much weaker than during the rest of the recovery. So a political deal, or even just some clarity about the future, could result in a nice bounceback in capital spending after the beginning of the year.” —Jan Hatzius, chief economist, Goldman Sachs
 
Italian Politics
“When people need me, I don’t abstain from acting.” —Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian Prime Minister, on why he’ll be a candidate in the 2013 elections
 
French Tax Rates
“I am leaving, because you consider that success, creativity, talent, anything different, should be sanctioned. I leave after paying, in 2012, an 85 percent tax rate on my income.” —Gérard Depardieu, French actor, on why he’s moving to Belgium
 
Federal Reserve
“Businesses that went right to the brink during the crisis are focused on survival and liquidity. Hopefully, that’s just a matter of healing and time. It’s one reason the Fed wants to be very consistent. If you put together a real consistent year of growth, that might cause companies to invest more.” —Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America, BNP Paribas
 
Data: International Monetary Fund, Fitch, Federal Reserve

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British retailers start online sales early

LONDON (Reuters) – British retailers have brought forward their Christmas clearance sales online in the hope that shoppers will log on to buy bargains and offset lackluster spending in stores.

Marks & Spencer launched its sale online at midday on Monday, it said on its website, while department store John Lewis said it would cut online prices when its stores close at 1700 GMT. Debenhams has already started its online sale.

Retailers in recent years have started sales online on Christmas Day, ahead of the clearances in stores from Boxing Day, but are increasingly launching their online offers before Christmas after delivery deadlines for the day have passed.

Hard-pressed shoppers have been leaving it later to buy presents in the hope that retailers would slash prices, the British Retail Consortium said.

It was forecasting that 5 billion pounds ($ 8.1 billion) would be spent in the shops on Saturday and Sunday combined, the last weekend before Christmas.

Richard Dodd, the BRC’s head of Media and Campaigns, said weekend trading had met expectations.

“Christmas, ultimately once all the final sums are done, will turn out to be acceptable but not exceptional,” he said.

He said the sector expected a modest increase in cash spending against a year go, but not necessarily any significant increase in real terms once inflation was stripped out.

Many British families‘ budgets are stretched, according to a survey from Markit that showed the biggest deterioration in household finances for seven months.

Analyst Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said the weakening in household finances could not come at a worse time for retailers, and it highlighted why many people appeared to have been careful in their Christmas shopping this year.

“The suspicion has to be that consumers will be especially keen to take advantage of genuine major bargains in the sales to acquire items that they cannot otherwise afford or are reluctant to make at the moment,” he said.

“However, we suspect that people will likely to be more careful in buying – or reluctant to buy – items that they don’t really want or need in the sales.”

($ 1 = 0.6180 British pounds)

(Reporting by Paul Sandle; Editing by Louise Heavens)

Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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New Genetic Tests Determines Breast Cancer and Ovarian Cancer Risks

COMMENTARY | New research has uncovered that mutations in the PPM1D gene is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and ovarian cancer. Unlike BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations, the PPM1D mutation is not inherited. Instead, the mutation only shows up in the blood when breast cancer or ovarian cancer is present. Medical News Today quotes professor Nazneen Raham as saying, “This is one of our most interesting and exciting discoveries.”

Important discovery

PPM1D mutations are very important. Because of the way they show up in the blood, if you have this mutation you have a 1 in 5 chance of developing breast cancer or ovarian cancer. That is almost twice the average risk for breast cancer and it is 10 times the risk for ovarian cancer. Knowing if you carry this mutation will help women decide on imaging and other preventative treatments. Right now, the only genetic test we have is the BRCA test. As PPM1D shows, BRCA is not the only gene mutation that indicates and increased risk for breast or ovarian cancers.

The study

Unlike many recent studies that have so few participants it makes the data questionable, this study looked at 7,781 women with either breast cancer or ovarian cancer and compared the PPM1D gene to 5,861 women from the general population. This allows the results to be statistically significant because they looked at so many different results. What the study showed is that in the group of women who had cancer, the researchers found 25 faults in the PPM1D gene. In the group of women without cancer only one fault was found. From a statistical standpoint, those results are quite amazing.

This study proves that newer, more detailed gene sequencing is needed to help determine cancer risks. This is especially true for ovarian cancers, sometimes called the silent killer, because most times this type of cancer is not caught until very late stages. Women with a family history of breast cancer or ovarian cancer need more weapons for detection in their arsenal. BRCA testing alone does not cut it. In my case, I have a family history of cancer but no identified genetic issues, like BRCA. I wonder how many lives testing for PPM1D could save.

Lynda Altman was diagnosed with breast cancer in November 2011. She writes a series for Yahoo! Shine called “My battle with breast cancer.”

Health News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Alcohol fraud rising, say traders

22 December 2012 Last updated at 20:25 ET

By Emma Forde 5 live Investigates

UK tax authorities are not doing enough to tackle alcohol duty fraud, claims a leading off-licence chain.

Bargain Booze told the BBC that the number of stores telling HM Revenue and Customs that they face illegal competition is rising.

Last year HMRC received over 600 reports to its tax hotline relating to alcohol fraud.

The Revenue said it acted on every piece of intelligence, but admitted investigations could take years.

The government has given HMRC £17m to tackle the gangs behind the fraud.

‘Paper event’

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

There are outlets all over the country which are selling at prices we couldn’t get even get close to matching and nobody is stopping them”

End Quote David Visick The Federation of Wholesale Distributors

Alcohol duty fraud in the UK often involves exporting alcohol to the EU – untaxed – and then bringing it back into the UK with false paperwork.

This method exploits EU rules which state duty does not have to be paid on alcohol when it is being transferred between registered producers or wholesalers – it is only paid when it enters the marketplace.

But the BBC’s 5 live Investigates programme has learned that some lorries containing duty-unpaid alcohol meant for export never even leave the UK.

“Increasingly it’s just a paper event – the lorry never goes abroad, so the actual product never leaves the UK. The lorry just stops on a lay-by somewhere and gets turned around,” says Keith Webb, acting managing director of Bargain Booze.

The illicit alcohol ends up in the hands of rogue wholesalers and retailers who then sell it on at prices which legitimate traders say are only possible if duty has been evaded.

A study published by the All Party Parliamentary Beer Group earlier this year, said HMRC estimates up to 1 in 5 cans and bottles of beer sold in the UK is illicit, and beer smuggling could be costing the Treasury around £500m per year in lost duty alone.

Representatives from the alcohol retail industry claim the total cost to the Exchequer could be billions of pounds: “HMRC view the loss of revenue to the Exchequer at £1.2bn, but that excludes wine. Within the trade, the real cost to the Exchequer is viewed as something in excess of £4bn a year,” says Keith Webb.

Illegal off-licences

5 live Investigates visited one suspected illegal wholesaler in the North West of England – a warehouse on an industrial estate. The programme team saw a wide range of alcohol being sold at very low prices, compared to what is offered on the high street.

For example, six bottles of Echo Falls Chardonnay was priced at £16.99 and 24 cans of Foster’s lager was £13.49.

Continue reading the main story

Alcohol duty fraud in the UK

• EU law requires that alcohol can be moved “duty unpaid” between registered warehouses


• Duty becomes payable at the point it enters the market – when it is sold to a non-bonded customer


• HMRC estimates duty fraud accounts for lost legitimate sales in the UK of over £1bn, with beer estimated at around half that total


• HMRC estimates that beer smuggling may be currently costing the Treasury around £500m in lost duty per year


• They believe that at least 1 in 10, and possibly 1 in 5, of all cans and bottles of beer on sale in the UK is duty unpaid


• Once fraudsters have smuggled beer back to the UK it can enter the legitimate supply chain, reappearing undetected alongside duty-paid beer in supermarkets and off-licences


• HMRC believes wine duty fraud is also significant in the UK and the Federation of Wholesale Distributors says its members have seen a decline in sales of an estimated £750m

Source: All-Party Parliamentary Beer Group, Beer Tax Fraud Inquiry, July 2012

A leading legitimate cash-and-carry operator said it could not find beers and wines so cheap even at wholesale prices, let alone match the on-the-shelf price offered to members of the public.

The cash-and-carry owner, who did not want to be named due to fear of reprisal from criminal gangs, says it would have to pay around £19.35 for a box of six bottles of Echo Falls Chardonnay – of that, £11.40 would be duty.

The same amount and brand of lager would cost £16.56, with duty at £9.36 per case.

Another legitimate wholesaler based in the West Midlands told the BBC its beer sales have fallen by around £20m in the last seven years as a direct result of illegal wholesalers operating in the same area.

Another legal retailer in the North West of England said it may stop selling alcohol altogether in the next 10 years because it cannot compete with the illegal trade.

“There are outlets all over the country which are selling at prices we couldn’t even get close to matching and nobody’s stopping them,” says David Visick from The Federation of Wholesale Distributors.

“That’s the responsibility of HMRC, but HMRC is more interested in chasing the problem to the root, to find the big criminals gangs who are behind this.”

Tackling criminal gangs

The BBC has been told one wholesaler suspected of alcohol fraud has been reported to HMRC over 30 times in the last 18 months – yet is still operating.

Continue reading the main story

5 live Investigates

Listen to the full report on 5 live Investigates on Sunday, 23 December at 21:00 GMT.

Sixteen people were convicted of alcohol fraud between 2009/2010, according to HMRC figures, and 40 civil penalties have been issued this year.

“We could chalk up a cricket score of prosecutions of small players and pawns in the organisations and that would make our outputs look good,” says Andy Leggett, HMRC’s deputy director of alcohol, tobacco & gambling taxes.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Every single piece of intelligence is acted upon, but that does not necessarily mean we will go and knock on that specific door in the next week”

End Quote Andy Leggett HMRC

“But the reality is, that would have zero impact on the fraud because those people would be replaced within days.”

The government has allocated £917m to HMRC to tackle tax avoidance, evasion and criminal attack over the next four years – £17m of that is to specifically target the organised criminal gangs behind alcohol fraud.

“Every single piece of intelligence is acted upon, but that does not necessarily mean we will go and knock on that specific door in the next week,” says Andy Leggett. “That may lead to an investigation many years down the track or may lead to an investigation elsewhere.”

Mr Leggett says HMRC is determined to tackle the criminal gangs, but disrupting their trade takes time. Enforcement officers will use criminal prosecutions and civil penalties to dismantle the illicit trade, but he acknowledges the frustration felt by other traders operating lawfully.

Earlier this year, HMRC smashed a £50m-a-year alcohol tax evasion scam – the biggest uncovered. The gang imported beers and wines from France duty-free for onward export, but the stock never left the UK and was diverted for sale without taxes and duties being paid. The ringleader, Kevin Burrage, was jailed for 10 years.

You can listen to the full report on 5 live Investigates on Sunday, 23 December, at 21:00 GMT on BBC 5 live. Listen again via the 5 live website or by downloading the 5 live Investigates podcast.

BBC News – Business

Title Post: Alcohol fraud rising, say traders
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